At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. But a deal isn바카라 게임 웹사이트�t over yet: Congress still needs to vote on the deal 바카라 게임 웹사이트� far from a guaranteed outcome 바카라 게임 웹사이트� and President Joe Biden would need to sign it before the US defaults or misses a scheduled payment.Video above: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks after debt ceiling agreement in principleEvery day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows.If lawmakers fail to pass the tentative agreement, and they don바카라 게임 웹사이트�t raise the country바카라 게임 웹사이트�s debt limit by early June, the government may confront an unprecedented challenge: determining which bills to prioritize for payment as the Treasury Department grapples with insufficient funds. Debt vs. other payments If the United States doesn바카라 게임 웹사이트�t raise the debt ceiling in time, the Treasury may have to decide whether to make interest payments to its debtholders or to pay its non-debt obligations, such as Social Security, veterans바카라 게임 웹사이트� benefits, unemployment insurance, food stamps, and running government organizations like the military and the US Centers for Disease Control.The United States government makes millions of payments each day, but the overall economy would pay a far greater price if it were to miss payments on its debt, according to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody바카라 게임 웹사이트�s Analytics. Moody바카라 게임 웹사이트�s Analytics is separate from Moody바카라 게임 웹사이트�s Investor Service, the credit rating agency.If the United States defaults on its debt, it would undermine faith in the federal government바카라 게임 웹사이트�s ability to pay all its bills on time, affecting the government바카라 게임 웹사이트�s credit rating and unleashing massive turbulence in financial markets.Countries with lower credit ratings face higher interest rate costs than those that are viewed as more trustworthy borrowers. The three largest credit rating agencies 바카라 게임 웹사이트� Moody바카라 게임 웹사이트�s Investor Service, S&P Global Ratings, and Fitch Ratings 바카라 게임 웹사이트� rate borrowers based on their perceived ability to pay back debt. If America바카라 게임 웹사이트�s credit rating were downgraded, that could raise borrowing costs for millions of Americans, sending mortgage, personal loan and credit card rates higher. It could make business바카라 게임 웹사이트� borrowing costs rise and lead to layoffs 바카라 게임 웹사이트� and ultimately a recession.What gets prioritized?Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default.In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren바카라 게임 웹사이트�t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States바카라 게임 웹사이트� debt. Zandi acknowledged that a government decision to pay back bondholders, including foreign governments like China and Japan, over an elderly Social Security recipient will likely be politically unpopular. However, he believes the government would try to prevent a debt default for as long as it can. 바카라 게임 웹사이트�The reality is, if they don바카라 게임 웹사이트�t do that, then the economy is going to evaporate, the budget deficits are going to explode, and our interest expense is going to rise because investors are going to demand higher rates,바카라 게임 웹사이트� Zandi said.바카라 게임 웹사이트�A grandmother 10 to 20 years from now looking for a Social Security check will be much less likely to get one. At least not one as large because we바카라 게임 웹사이트�ll be in a much more precarious financial situation.바카라 게임 웹사이트�Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, however, has not said what the Treasury Department would do if the country hits the so-called X-date, when the government can no longer meet all its obligations. In March, she called prioritizing payments 바카라 게임 웹사이트�effectively a default by just another name.바카라 게임 웹사이트�Treasury will not be able to make everyone happyOn Friday, Yellen updated her estimate of the X-date, to June 5.Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.In 2011, then-Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner compared the government picking and choosing which bills to pay to a homeowner who pays their mortgage while pushing off their car loan and credit card bills: while that key housing expense is taken care of, that person would likely still have damaged credit.Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, said no matter which payments Treasury decides to put first, the agency will likely be sued by those left behind. 바카라 게임 웹사이트�What should Treasury do? Should it issue new debt it바카라 게임 웹사이트�s not authorized to issue? Should it fail to pay a bill it바카라 게임 웹사이트�s required to pay? Should it fail to honor the debt that the US government has issued? There is no clear legal answer,바카라 게임 웹사이트� she said.바카라 게임 웹사이트�Treasury doesn바카라 게임 웹사이트�t really want to answer that question, and they don바카라 게임 웹사이트�t really want to be in that position.바카라 게임 웹사이트�