U.S. could avoid recession 바카라 게임 웹사이트 how experts say you should adjust your finances
Could the Fed actually achieve a legendary soft landing? Here바카라 게임 웹사이트s the stock market outlook for the month ahead.
Could the Fed actually achieve a legendary soft landing? Here바카라 게임 웹사이트s the stock market outlook for the month ahead.
Could the Fed actually achieve a legendary soft landing? Here바카라 게임 웹사이트s the stock market outlook for the month ahead.
Anna-Louise Jackson is a financial journalist with more than a decade of experience reporting on investments, retirement and other areas of personal finance. Her writing has appeared in Bloomberg Businessweek, Bloomberg 온라인 바카라 게임, CNBC, MarketWatch, Forbes Advisor, and Buy Side from WSJ, among many other publications. She was previously the lead investing writer for NerdWallet.
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Optimism that the U.S. economy will achieve a soft landing has helped firm up a rally in the stock market that바카라 게임 웹사이트s sent prices soaring in recent months. July marked another month of gains in a year that바카라 게임 웹사이트s, so far, proving wrong those calling for an imminent economic slowdown 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and even Federal Reserve policymakers are no longer forecasting a .
The major gauges for the U.S. stock market all closed higher in July, marking some milestones along the way. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted 13 straight days of gains, matching a 1987 record, as it rose 3.3% in the month. The S&P 500 notched a 3.1% gain, and it closed out the month about 200 points below its all-time high. And finally, the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 4%, as its January-July gains of 37% marked the best since 1975.
Bullish sentiment on Wall Street indicates there바카라 게임 웹사이트s more conviction that the Fed바카라 게임 웹사이트s efforts to tame didn바카라 게임 웹사이트t come at the expense of the economy. As widely expected, policymakers raised a key benchmark rate at its July meeting, to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. That marks the highest level since 2001. Meanwhile, gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, when adjusted for inflation, which marked a faster-than-expected acceleration from the prior quarter.
August could live up to its 바카라 게임 웹사이트very boring바카라 게임 웹사이트 historical reputation, particularly since Fed policymakers don바카라 게임 웹사이트t convene this month, earnings season hasn바카라 게임 웹사이트t brought many surprises, and there바카라 게임 웹사이트s typically a significant decline in trading activity thanks to vacationing Wall Street types, notes Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. That said, Fed policymakers left the possibility of another rate hike on the table for September, so expect the attention to be on inflation-related economic reports. 바카라 게임 웹사이트It바카라 게임 웹사이트s the same story for August and September, which is a continued focus on whether inflation is durably coming down.바카라 게임 웹사이트
Here바카라 게임 웹사이트s what to watch in the month ahead, and in August and beyond.
Stock market outlook: the importance of earnings season
The multi-week period known as earnings season, when publicly traded companies release financial results for the most-recent quarter, will conclude in August. The month begins with the busiest week of what바카라 게임 웹사이트s been shaping up to be a pretty average earnings season 바카라 게임 웹사이트 in a good way.
Slightly more than half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported results, of which for earnings, according to FactSet. These results indicate consumer spending remains resilient, while fundamentals support stock valuations, Ladner notes. 바카라 게임 웹사이트It바카라 게임 웹사이트s been a very boring earnings season so far, and that바카라 게임 웹사이트s just fine.바카라 게임 웹사이트
But don바카라 게임 웹사이트t ignore the tail end of earnings season just yet, notes Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. That바카라 게임 웹사이트s because there isn바카라 게임 웹사이트t yet an all-clear on the economy 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and corporate leaders have been wrestling with lingering concerns about the macroeconomic backdrop, he adds.
Companies don바카라 게임 웹사이트t necessarily want to pull back on investments, for example, but need to know what continuing with such spending plans will mean if the economy does enter a , VanCronkhite says. Likewise, while consumer demand remains strong, companies must decide how much, if any, power they have to raise prices, he adds. 바카라 게임 웹사이트I think this is an important earnings season.바카라 게임 웹사이트
The market, like the Fed, remains data-dependent
During the press conference following the central bank바카라 게임 웹사이트s July meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlined the economic reports that policymakers will watch ahead of September. That list includes two monthly employment reports and two monthly consumer price index (CPI) reports. This month, expect the July jobs data on Aug. 4, followed by the CPI report for July on Aug. 10.
Powell promised that 바카라 게임 웹사이트all of that information is going to inform our decision바카라 게임 웹사이트 for the next rate meeting, so market participants will likewise monitor the same data to gauge whether central bankers will raise rates again in September or hold steady 바카라 게임 웹사이트 both options that Powell indicated are possible.
바카라 게임 웹사이트The market, like the Fed, is data-dependent right now,바카라 게임 웹사이트 says VanCronkhite. While the consensus on Wall Street is that another rate hike isn바카라 게임 웹사이트t likely next month, any economic reports that suggest one is warranted could make September a 바카라 게임 웹사이트live바카라 게임 웹사이트 meeting 바카라 게임 웹사이트 and thereby increase the potential for in the interim, he adds.
A rate cut, on the other hand, isn바카라 게임 웹사이트t likely for quite some time, Ladner says. 바카라 게임 웹사이트The hurdle to cut rates is probably impossibly high right now,바카라 게임 웹사이트 he adds.
Still, pockets of the economy continue to require close attention. While tempering the rate of inflation remains top-of-mind for central bankers, they must also monitor the implications that decades-high interest rates have on the and stock prices, Ladner says.
Expectations for the economy are now so elevated that any data that calls into question the potential of a 바카라 게임 웹사이트soft landing바카라 게임 웹사이트 could create market turmoil, VanCronkhite adds. In the labor market, that might include a spike in corporate layoffs or a rising number of people filing for unemployment benefits, while it could also be signs that 바카라 게임 웹사이트little nicks here and there바카라 게임 웹사이트 are worsening for consumers, such as a more pronounced increase in delinquencies or signs people are running out of their , he notes.
Finally, even though it바카라 게임 웹사이트s not a policy meeting, Federal Reserve personnel will convene in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for an annual summit in late August. Neither Ladner nor VanCronkhite expect any major announcements about a shift in policy then, though they say the symposium could offer an opportunity for central bankers to tout their success in fighting inflation or offer hints about the September meeting. 바카라 게임 웹사이트It has the potential to be interesting,바카라 게임 웹사이트 Ladner says.
How to invest in August and beyond
If this August is like past Augusts, there바카라 게임 웹사이트s a risk of higher volatility during a month that historically sees less liquidity. But VanCronkhite cautions investors to be wary of inferring too much on past trends. 바카라 게임 웹사이트If recent history is any indication, we should not rely on traditional seasonal patterns in terms of what we can expect,바카라 게임 웹사이트 he says. 바카라 게임 웹사이트Things rarely seem typical recently.바카라 게임 웹사이트
Along those lines, VanCronkhite says future rate policy could play out much differently than in the past. In particular, the Fed isn바카라 게임 웹사이트t likely to cut interest rates quickly whenever it does so, nor keep rates near-zero as it did in the wake of the financial crisis. That바카라 게임 웹사이트s why he recommends adding to your portfolio shares of companies that have embedded demand or benefit from secular growth, including areas of the insurance, industrials, and consumer staples sectors. 바카라 게임 웹사이트Look for businesses that are less reliant on the Fed to drive their demand.바카라 게임 웹사이트
Finally, with the economy seemingly on more solid footing, now may be a good time to 바카라 게임 웹사이트embrace the more cyclical parts of the market,바카라 게임 웹사이트 Ladner says. That includes small-cap stocks and sectors leveraged to economic growth, such as materials or energy, he adds. 바카라 게임 웹사이트If it becomes even more clear that a recession is less likely than more likely, those parts of the market that haven바카라 게임 웹사이트t participated as much in the rally probably need to play a bit of catch up.바카라 게임 웹사이트
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This article was first published on and reviewed by Lauren Williamson, who serves as Financial and Home Services Editor for the Hearst E-Commerce team. Email her at lauren.williamson@hearst.com.
